However analysts on opposing sides of the talk over the Trump administration’s strain techniques drew differing conclusions from the historic parallel.
After practically eight years of conflict with Iraq, the Ayatollah Khomeini, who was then Iran’s supreme chief, accepted a United Nations-brokered cease-fire in 1988, regardless of having vowed to wage conflict till victory. He likened the settlement to consuming from a “poisoned chalice.”
To Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow on the Basis for Protection of Democracies, a hawkish Washington assume tank that advocates pressuring Iran into submission, that historical past means that Iran will fold if below sufficient pressure.
“To say that there are pressures on Iran now that they didn’t should bear throughout the conflict is a significant testomony to how efficient the sanctions are,” he stated. “Iran will double down, triple down, quadruple down, however then in the end do a 180 in the event that they understand that there’s no means out.”
However giving in to the Trump administration’s calls for would quantity to near-total capitulation for Iran’s leaders, one thing different analysts stated Iranians could be unwilling to just accept, on condition that it may result in a wholesale regime change.
That’s precisely what no less than one member of the Trump administration appears to be searching for.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo just lately acknowledged to Michael J. Morell, a former performing director of the C.I.A., that the administration’s technique wouldn’t coerce Iranian leaders right into a friendlier stance. However, he stated, “I believe what can change is, the individuals can change the federal government.”
Ali Vaez, director of the Iran venture on the Worldwide Disaster Group, stated: “From the Iranian perspective, the one factor that’s extra harmful than affected by sanctions is surrendering to them. Ayatollah Khamenei has believed through the years that if you happen to give in to strain, it gained’t really alleviate it, however it’s going to really invite extra strain. With that worldview, the Iranians are fairly unlikely to be calling President Trump anytime quickly.”