Brexit: What Occurs Subsequent?

It has been one other fairly disastrous 24 hours for Theresa Might.

Yesterday she was pressured by Conservative MPs to say she would set out a timetable for her fast-approaching departure from Downing Road after the subsequent Brexit vote due within the first week of June. (The identical week as Donald Trump’s state go to.)

Simply as this was occurring, Boris Johnson confirmed he could be standing within the race to switch her.

Then on Friday morning Jeremy Corbyn introduced the collapse of talks between Labour and Quantity 10.

“Please do not waste this time.”

Six weeks of pointless talks, a pointless European election and a Tory leadership contest it is then.

“Please don’t waste this time.”

Six weeks of pointless talks, a pointless European election and a Tory management contest it’s then.

09:47 AM – 17 Might 2019

The 2 sides had been making an attempt to see if they might discover a strategy to break the deadlock, however Corbyn mentioned the instability of the federal government meant there was no level persevering with.

Theresa May to Jeremy Corbyn*: Absolute same.

*inner monologue.

Theresa Might to Jeremy Corbyn*: Absolute identical.

*interior monologue.

12:11 PM – 17 Might 2019

So what occurs subsequent?

Geoff Caddick / AFP / Getty Pictures

We are able to say with some certainty that Might will maintain one other vote on the Withdrawal Settlement Invoice within the week starting June three. True, she has damaged guarantees like that earlier than, but when she tried to cancel the vote once more Tory MPs would change the occasion’s guidelines so she could possibly be faraway from workplace.

Earlier than then it’s attainable Might might maintain a sequence of indicative votes in Parliament to check whether or not any of the assorted Brexit choices — from a second referendum, to her authentic deal, to Corbyn’s proposed customs union deal, to leaving with no deal — have a majority.

In the meanwhile, it’s tough to see MPs coming to any settlement on proceed, which means Might is prone to lose the June vote.

She’s going to then have to elucidate how she intends at hand over energy to a brand new prime minister.

There are not less than 20 potential runners and riders: Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid, Michael Gove, Matt Hancock, Andrea Leadsom, Rory Stewart, Amber Rudd, Liz Truss, Esther McVey, Penny Mordaunt, Johnny Mercer, Mark Harper, Steve Baker, Graham Brady, James Cleverly, Equipment Malthouse, Justine Greening, and Priti Patel.

The Tory occasion will need to maintain the management contest as quickly as attainable and have a brand new prime minister in place by July.

The Tory occasion membership is prone to need a Brexit-supporting PM, which implies Boris and Raab are the clear frontrunners. Stay-voting Tory MPs might try to forestall a Brexiteer from getting on the poll paper, however that may be a particularly unpopular transfer.

That implies that as issues stand it’s odds-on that the UK may have a brand new Brexiteer PM by the top of the summer time.

The brand new PM — whoever they’re — will then must both return to Brussels to renegotiate the Brexit deal (good luck with that), or discover a majority in Parliament for a approach ahead (severely, good luck), by October 31. That’s the deadline for the extension of Article 50.

The Brexiteer candidates (ie Boris and Dominic Raab) in particular should be very careful what they say during the campaign - temptation clearly to talk tough but probably odds on that their first action will have to be requesting another extension from the EU...

The Brexiteer candidates (ie Boris and Dominic Raab) specifically needs to be very cautious what they are saying throughout the marketing campaign – temptation clearly to speak powerful however most likely odds on that their first motion must be requesting one other extension from the EU…

10:45 AM – 16 Might 2019

If no Brexit deal is agreed by then, the UK may have a alternative between both leaving with no deal, revoking Article 50, or begging the EU to present us one other extension.

The maths means that Parliament will vote to forestall a no-deal Brexit. You may guess a brand new Tory PM won’t need to revoke Article 50, so on this state of affairs they might find yourself having to ask Brussels for an extra extension.

The EU, who by this level will most likely be much more fed up of this than the UK, are going to wish a motive to increase, specifically a common election to vary the numbers in Parliament, or a second referendum.

That would imply that if Parliament desires to forestall no deal, it has to pressure an election in the direction of the top of this 12 months.

Within the meantime, there’s nonetheless the European elections to get by way of. As you may see from the colourful campaigning, all the things goes swimmingly.

Ah yes, the classic

Ah sure, the traditional “sufferer’s household appeals for witnesses to come back ahead” fashion of election marketing campaign launch.

02:13 PM – 17 Might 2019

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